In November, Washington announced a partial suspension of the Caesar Act, easing a swath of US sanctions on Syria for the first time since 2019. The legislation had targeted the Assad regime across oil, gas, aviation, construction and finance, throttling economic activity and accelerating inflation, poverty and currency depreciation. Cut off from trade finance and international payment systems such as Swift, Syria was forced to rely on Lebanese ports, banks and infrastructure to conduct even basic commercial transactions. The relaxation of sanctions could now recalibrate that relationship. LIMS argues that it opens a tangible set of opportunities for Lebanon, including the resumption of energy imports from Egypt and Jordan via Syrian territory, shifts in labour markets as Syrian workers return home, and participation in eventual reconstruction projects that may offer work for Lebanese contractors. A reopening of overland routes through Syria could also revive trade with the Gulf, sharply reducing shipping costs and improving the environment for Lebanese importers and exporters.
 
There may also be scope in services. As Syrians living abroad seek to visit a country short of hotel capacity and tourism infrastructure, Lebanese investors, drawing on experience in hospitality, geographic proximity and cultural familiarity, could find openings both in Syria itself and in attracting expatriate Syrians to Lebanon.
 
Yet the adjustment carries risks as well as rewards. LIMS cautions that Lebanese banks and businesses long exposed to Syrian operations may see their intermediary role erode as commerce and finance are repatriated under Syrian control, potentially exposing balance-sheet weaknesses and recapitalisation needs.
 
At the same time, regional insecurity is shaping economic behaviour in Lebanon. In southern Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold, fears of renewed escalation between Israel and Hezbollah have prompted a wave of distress sales in November. Confronted with persistent drone surveillance, political uncertainty and the risk of physical destruction, some residents are opting to sell pre-emptively in an already fragile property market marked by scarce housing finance, weak demand and prolonged instability.
 
LIMS argues that these sales are not speculative but defensive, a rational response to heightened security risks. Investor activity increasingly reflects the logic of a “crisis economy”, with buyers targeting damaged or deeply discounted properties in anticipation of future reconstruction. Any broader recovery in Lebanon’s real estate market, LIMS concludes, will depend less on episodic inflows and more on structural reforms: a restructured banking system, restored access to housing credit, and sustained political and security stabilisation capable of rebuilding confidence.

• Suspending Sanctions On Syria: A Reconstruction Opportunity Or A Threat To Lebanon’s Economy? November 12, 2025: Spot Shot, Video Interview (AR)
• Forced Sale of Properties, November 6, 2025: Alhurra, Article (AR)