More than a decade after the outbreak of civil war, Syria’s economy lies in tatters. UN figures paint a bleak picture: 75 per cent of Syrians now depend on humanitarian aid, 90 per cent live in poverty — a figure that has tripled since the conflict began — and extreme poverty has surged sixfold to engulf two-thirds of the population. Meanwhile, the Syrian pound plunged by over 315 per cent in 2023 alone.

But while international donors debate yet another round of aid packages, it is becoming increasingly clear that Syria’s post-conflict reconstruction cannot rely solely on charity. A more durable recovery will require structural reforms to dismantle the command economy inherited from the Assad era. A roadmap for such a transition has been laid out by our initiative: Syria’s Economic Renewal Journey (SERAJ). The program argues that without a decisive break from the failed socialist model, Syria risks institutionalising its decline.

The first reform is the downsizing of the bloated public sector. For decades, the government has used state employment as a political tool and a de facto social safety net, leading to inefficiency, fiscal strain, and the stifling of private initiative. Trimming the number of public sector employees while encouraging private-sector job creation would shift the economy from dependency to productivity.

Second, the subsidy system, long portrayed as a lifeline for the poor, has instead proved a trap — distorting markets and creating chronic shortages of basic goods. Fuel, bread, and other essentials have vanished from shelves not due to scarcity, but due to the economic dysfunction subsidies create.

Third, Syria’s opaque and punitive tax regime — more tool of extortion than revenue — must be scrapped. Investors, domestic and foreign alike, have been deterred by unpredictable enforcement and confiscatory levies. A new, simplified tax code offering advantages compared to regional benchmarks could foster business creation and capital inflows.

Fourth, state-owned enterprises, particularly in the industrial sector, should be auctioned off. These entities persist largely due to government protectionism and preferential treatment, yet they consistently produce substandard goods and operate at a loss rather than generating profit. Privatising them would relieve the state of inefficient, loss-making factories and open the door to competition, innovation, and private investment.

Fifth, monopolies in key sectors such as electricity must be dismantled. Years of underinvestment and war damage have decimated Syria’s grid. Allowing private providers to enter the market, in competition with a skeletal public utility, would not only improve service but also relieve the state from an unsustainable burden.

Finally, Syria’s long-term prosperity hinges on rejoining the global economy. Unconditional free trade would allow Syria to import cheaper goods, access new export markets, and anchor its recovery in the international rules-based system.

If implemented with resolve, these SERAJ’s reforms could transform Syria from a pariah state weighed down by war socialism into a dynamic, open economy integrated with its neighbours and the world. The alternative — another decade of stagnation — is one the Syrian people can no longer afford.

• An Economic Expert Reveals The Top 5 Challenges Facing The Syrian Economy After The Defeat Of The Assad Regime, March 5, 2025: Sawt Beirut, Article AR
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