BELIEF, الملخص الاقتصادي, النمو الاقتصادي, الوضع الأمني

Syrian Economic Renewal Journey After the Fall of the Assad Regime

12:21 | 31 كانون الأول 2024LIMS output
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Assad Regime

The collapse of the Assad regime in December marks a geopolitical shift in the Middle east. Emerging signals from Syrian officials suggest a shift away from state-controlled economic policies toward a more open-market approach. If this transition materializes and is coupled with the establishment of a moderate government and the lifting of sanctions, it could stimulate peace and prosperity across the region.

Lebanon’s political and economic landscape has long been shaped by its complex ties with neighboring Syria. LIMS argued that the fall of the Assad regime presents an opportunity to restore Lebanon’s trade routes with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) overland through Syria. The tensions severely disrupted this corridor and Lebanon was forced to rely on costly maritime trade. Also, the prospect of importing electricity from Syria—and through Syria from other Arab states—could offer a solution for the energy crisis in Lebanon. Should a moderate government emerge in Syria and international sanctions be lifted, Lebanon’s exporters and importers could regain access to vital markets at significantly lower costs.

As Syria embarks on what is likely to be a long reconstruction process, Lebanon’s northern port city of Tripoli is well-positioned to serve as a logistical hub. The port, which underwent expansion in recent years, has the capacity to handle increased cargo flows. Lebanon’s private sector could also play a role in Syria’s reconstruction. Lebanese companies have a history of involvement in Syrian projects and are well-equipped to contribute expertise.

Lebanon currently hosts an estimated 1.5 million Syrian refugees. These refugees place strains on infrastructure but also help maintain Lebanon’s competitive labor costs. The free movement of people between the two countries could alleviate some of the pressures while preserving the labor force that supports key industries.

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