Cyprus has announced it will no longer process asylum applications from Syrians and, in coordination with Lebanon, has tightened maritime policing. In response, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has offered a €1 billion aid package to Lebanon, aimed at bolstering border security and facilitating the repatriation of refugees to Lebanon. The announcement has been perceived in Lebanon as a bribe to keep Syrians within its borders and prevent their migration to Europe. Some Lebanese politicians have urged the authorities to allow migrant boats to reach Europe, stating that the €1 billion aid is way below the actual cost of the refugee crisis.

LIMS emphasized that the economic impact of the Syrian war on Lebanon is multifaceted. Economic growth in Lebanon fell from an average of 9% per year before 2011 to an average of 2% per year from 2011 to 2017. This decline reflects the broader costs of the war, including the refugee crisis, disrupted trade routes, and a slowdown in tourism and investment due to increased risks. Isolating the specific cost of hosting refugees from the overall war impact is challenging.
 
LIMS advocates for a balanced assessment of the Syrian refugee crisis, considering both costs and benefits. Refugees have helped maintain low production costs in Lebanon, preventing the shutdown of many businesses during the economic depression that started in 2019. Some refugees have opened shops and restaurants, contributing to economic activity. Additionally, foreign aid received by Syrian refugees has been spent on rent, education, groceries, and more, injecting much-needed fresh dollars into the Lebanese economy during a critical period.
 
However, the presence of a large refugee population has put additional pressure on Lebanon’s already strained infrastructure, including electricity and waste management. These sectors were struggling due to government mismanagement long before the refugee influx. Selling electricity at a loss and poor waste management practices have been exacerbated by increased demand, but properly managed sectors could have leveraged the additional demand as a revenue opportunity rather than a burden.
 
LIMS also criticized the rhetoric of populist politicians advocating for sending Syrian refugees to Europe, suggesting their primary aim is to blackmail Europe into providing more funding. There is skepticism about the effective use of any additional funds, given Lebanon’s track record of mismanagement, including the squandering of $80 billion in depositors’ funds.
Ultimately, LIMS stresses that without proper management and reforms, even significant financial aid could be wasted, failing to address the underlying issues plaguing Lebanon’s economy.

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• The Syrian Competes With The Lebanese With Support From The Laws, May 21, 2024: Beirut24, Audio Interview AR