October 2021

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Here's How We Made a Lasting Impact in October 2021
LIMS Celebrates Victory: Fuel Subsidies Completely Lifted
On Wednesday October 20, Lebanon ended fuel subsidies. The Ministry of Energy and Water set the price for 20 liters of 95-octane petroleum at 302,700 Lebanese pounds (LBP) or around $15 at the black-market rate, compared to 61,100 LBP in June. Consequently, fuel flooded the market, putting an end to the tankers smuggling to Syria, as well as the black-market fuel. Consumers, who used to wait for long hours at gas stations can now fill their tanks quickly and continue on with their day. Shopping malls, factories, hotels, and hospitals that announced their closure because of the lack of electricity can now find diesel, start their generators again and get back to business. Also, farmers have enough diesel to operate their refrigeration units and resume production. Lebanon is still going through one of the most pronounced economic recessions worldwide in the past 150 years, but at least, the fuel crisis is over in Lebanon and the hemorrhage of FX reserves has slowed down.
LIMS was the first organization to criticize the central bank’s subsidies program (CBSP) when it was still a popular and unquestionable policy. We started our campaign against the program as soon as the CBSP was announced in April 2020, by using intensive media exposure. We gave 54 TV, 20 radio and 106 newspaper and online newspaper interviews on the topic. Those interviews were shared on several news platforms reaching a total of 387 publications. Our media output highlighted the problems related to subsidies, showing that it causes more harm than good. The impact soon showed in media outlets’ content and in the position of some political parties when they finally started connecting fuel smuggling and shortages to subsidies. Progressively, the position of both local public opinion and the international community evolved on the CBSP.
In parallel to the relentless media pressure, we reached out to the minister of economy and trade in June 2020, convinced him to repeal subsidies and worked one-on-one with him on alternatives. In July 2020, the World Bank joined our working group with the ministry, and we were able to take advantage of their extensive international experience on subsidy reforms. Between February to April 2021, LIMS attended a series of 10 meetings organized by the Economic and Social Council, aimed at drafting a consensual subsidy reform proposition. The meetings gathered MPs, ministers, representatives of political parties, members of the business community, academics, and experts. LIMS adopted a hardline at those meetings arguing for the immediate and unconditional repeal of all subsidies. In May 2021, LIMS drafted a policy paper titled “Central Bank’s Subsidies Program: Exit Strategies” and organized a roundtable with key stakeholders on the topic. The roundtable had extensive media coverage.
Then, on August 15, the explosion of a secret fuel tank in Akkar, destined to be smuggled to Syria killed at least 28 people and injured 79. From this point onward, LIMS shifted towards a more frontal approach accusing all political parties, in support of subsides, of covering up for smugglers, and financially benefiting from the CBSP, at the expense of the population. This new line of argument made it very hard to defend maintaining subsidies. Finally, the central bank stepped up, declared that fuel is not reaching the population, despite the high cost of subsidies, and decided to stop funding the program. This action forced the government to adjust fuel prices accordingly.
Lebanon is on the verge of becoming a failed state and the new Venezuela or Zimbabwe; but we believe that we can help the country change course one reform after another. Repealing fuel subsidies saved around $2.14 billion of public spending per year, which is equivalent to $140 every month for each Lebanese household. This amount is 4 times the monthly minimum wage and was spent uselessly on a program that led to social and economic disaster. Our victory and our work would not have been possible, without the support of all our generous donors. Thank you.
  • Lebanon And The Fuel Crisis, October 1, 2021: MCD, Article AR
  • Crisis-Hit Lebanon Hikes Fuel Prices In De Facto End To Subsidies, October 20, 2021: France 24, News Article EN
  • Fuel Shortages Are Over, After The Lifting Of Subsidies, October 23, 2021: NBN, TV Interview AR
Forensic Audit Should Include Public Procurement
On October 20, the president of the Lebanese Republic declared that Alvarez & Marsal (A&M) will resume its forensic audit of the central bank (Banque du Liban or BdL). The audit had reached a standstill in November 2020, when A&M withdrew, saying it had not received the information it needed from BdL. Since then, parliament agreed to lift the banking secrecy law from BDL's and public institutions' accounts for a year, to allow BdL to share the requested information so that the audit can move forward. LIMS commented on the event, highlighting the importance of the forensic audit to determine the exact losses incurred by the central bank throughout the years. The recognition of losses is essential to any economic recovery plan. 
However, some politicians have been trying to take advantage of the forensic audit in the central bank, claiming that it will help Lebanon recover stolen money. By doing so, those politicians have a triple aim: (1) use the central bank as a scapegoat to cover their own corruption, (2) replace the current governor of the central bank with their own puppet, and (3) appropriate protestors’ demands on the recovery of stolen assets.
LIMS clarified that auditing the central bank alone is not enough to uncover the nested corruption that has been gripping government institutions for decades. For years, the central bank kept funding the successive governments, but it was in the respective ministries that public funds were wasted. Those ministries were controlled by political leaders among which the ones trying to shift the blame to the central bank. 
LIMS stressed on the importance of submitting all future public contracts to the scrutiny of an independent body in order to prevent future corruption. The new Public Procurement Law actually extends the supervision scope of the newly created Public Procurement Authority (PPA) to entities that were not subject to the Tender Board, but the independence of the PPA remains questionable. As for how to uncover past corruption, LIMS also advocated for the scope of the forensic audit to be larger, so that it covers all public contracts signed by ministries and other public entities. Only in the event of such a comprehensive forensic audit, could corruption channels be exposed, and liable ministers identified. 
LIMS Media Interviews:
  • Can The Forensic Audit Uncover Corruption In Lebanon?, October 20, 2021: Al Mamlaka, TV Interview AR
  • Lebanon Begins The Forensic Audit Of The Central Bank, October 21, 2021: Al Mamlaka, TV Interview AR
  • Will The Lebanese Learn Where Their Money Was Spent?, October 22, 2021: VDL News, Radio Interview AR
Only Currency Board Can Defeat Monetary Mayhem
Following the formation of a new government headed by Prime Minister Mr. Mikati in September, the exchange rate saw a drop from 20,000 to around 16,000 Lebanese pounds (LBP) to the dollar. Since, the optimistic atmosphere that accompanied the formation process has worn off, and the exchange rate has exceeded 20,000 LBP to the dollar once again.
    
LIMS weighed in on the matter, explaining that 2 main factors regulate the exchange rate: (1) the money in circulation and (2) the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves. Stabilizing the exchange rate would require a stop to money creation and a halt of the hemorrhaging of the FX reserves. In fact, now that the optimistic atmosphere that accompanied the government formation has worn off, indicators have gone sour. On the one hand, Lebanon is still printing money to help banks meet their client’s withdrawals from USD denominated accounts. Moreover, the government is aiming to increase the minimum wage from 675,000 to 5 million LBP, which would entail a drastic increase of the money in circulation and subsequent inflation. On the other hand, the Ministry of Energy and Water is determined to continue subsidizing electricity using central bank FX reserves to purchase fuel for the power plants.
Given that the government is limited to a short mandate bounded by parliamentarian elections next May, it is unrealistic to expect Mikati’s cabinet to resolve the multifaceted crisis gripping Lebanon. Nevertheless, LIMS stated that the government is capable of addressing the monetary meltdown by establishing a currency board that stabilizes and strengthens the Lebanese pound. Passing such a monetary reform will have an immediate positive impact on all LBP-earners, who will see an increase in purchasing power, in as little as one month. LIMS went on to say that the ongoing floating exchange rate is not suited for countries like Lebanon, plagued by political instability and social unrest. In the absence of a currency board, the LBP is due to continue its uncapped depreciation trend against the US dollar and there will rein in monetary collapse.
LIMS Media Interviews:
  • The Latest Details On The Plummeting Of The Lebanese Pound, October 18, 2021: Annahar, TV Interview AR
  • Most Prominent Changes In The Lebanese Economy Since The Onset Of The Collapse, October 18, 2021: Lebeconomy, Article AR
  • Government Has Plenty Of Time To Enact Monetary Reforms, October 19, 2021: Alyaum, TV Interview AR
  • Without A Currency Board, Dollar Exchange Rate To Increase Again. October 23, 2021: VDL News, Radio Interview AR
  • Where Are The Lebanese Pounds Being Printed?, October 25, 2021: Lebanon 24, Article AR
  • Daily Variations Of The Dollar Exchange Rate Negatively Impacting The Lebanese, October 26, 2021: Al Afkar, Article AR
  • Fixing The Exchange Rate Can Only Be Achieved Through A Currency Board, October 30, 2021: Al Joumhouriya, TV Interview AR
Public Policy Workshop – LLA 301
LIMS Leaders’ Academy (LLA) 5th yearly edition resumed on October 23 and 24. The in-person workshop gathered 47 leading activists from across Lebanon belonging to grassroots groups seeking change. They passed the first two steps of the Leaders’ Academy and qualified to LLA 301. Participants formed 7 groups, and each group worked with a policy expert on how to draft a compelling free market-policy proposition to deal with an economic challenge, they chose to address.
34 participants belonging to 23 different prominent grassroots movements graduated from LLA 301 and started working on the following reforms:
(1) The case for Federalism in Lebanon, (2) A solution to the struggling medical sector, (3) Renewable energy as a solution to the electricity problem in Lebanon, (4) Waste sorting and recycling to end the garbage problem, (5) The legalization of cannabis (6) Improving women and individuals’ ease to do business, and (7) A consensual program for economic reforms.
The workshop included technical sessions, working groups, presentations, feedback, speed exchanges, and a planetary lecture on beneficial ownership in public procurement, along with a graduation ceremony.
Each group is expected to draft a policy brief and present it at LIMS’ annual policy fair to journalists, experts, academics, political activists and NGOs. 
Photos of LLA 301 Day 1
Photos of LLA 301 Day 2
Remittances Provide Lifeline to Lebanon
In 2020, Lebanon received $6.3 billion in remittances, equivalent to $922.8 per capita, and amounting to 14.9% of the GDP. Nevertheless, the economic crisis took its toll on the Lebanese people. Consequently, residents have been resorting to austere measures of opting for cheaper, lower-quality commodities. What’s even more alarming, a growing trend has been for parents not to enroll their children in school.
 
LIMS stated that remittances are Lebanon’s main source of fresh dollars that is helping alleviate the social burden of the economic crisis. However, this support from expats to their family members will not be enough to place the local economy on the right track again. It is crucial for Lebanon to attract investments and capital inflow spearheaded by the large Lebanese diaspora, to kickstart an effective economic recovery. Attracting and securing investments requires a trustworthy economic landscape, that must have a key feature—a solid monetary arrangement ensuring a non-inflationary currency. 
LIMS reiterated that the most straightforward method to deliver a sound money is to establish a currency board. Creating a currency board would fix the exchange rate indefinitely by fully backing the entire money supply with foreign exchange reserves. In the absence of an effective monetary reform that would encourage investing into the local economy, the Lebanese pound will continue its unbounded depreciation trend. This would then threaten the food security of the Lebanese people for an indefinite time period.
To top things off, The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries announced the suspension of diplomatic relations with Lebanon following the Lebanese information minister remarks, deemed as ‘insulting’. Essentially, this means putting a halt to all Lebanese imports and possibly escalating measures in the future. KSA and the United Arab Emirates represent the 2 biggest export markets for Lebanon worth $212 million and $450 million respectively in the year 2018. KSA is also behind 20.4% of the remittances received by Lebanon, in addition to numerous investments by Saudi businesspeople in tourism, hotels, and media outlets. LIMS remarked that severed ties with KSA and other Gulf countries will constitute a huge blow to the Lebanese economy. Suspended economic relations with the GCC countries will deprive Lebanon from the meager foreign currencies inflow, and will complicate the crisis even more.
LIMS Media Interviews:
  • Remittance Stats From The Diaspora, October 16, 2021: Lebeconomy, Article AR
  • Remittances And Donations Cannot Fix The Spreading Food Security Crisis, October 19, 2021: Nidaa Al Watan, Article AR
  • Repercussions Of Riyadh’s Escalation Against Lebanon, October 30, 2021: Anadol, Article AR
Lebanon Set To Resume IMF Negotiations
Prime Minister Mikati’s newly formed cabinet pledged to resume negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). An IMF program is seen as the only way Lebanon can unlock desperately needed aid, as the country simultaneously battles an economic crisis, a monetary crisis, a banking crisis, and a fiscal crisis.
LIMS explained that talks with the IMF had broken down last year after the Finance and Budget Parliamentarian Committee rejected the previous government’s recovery plan, and the Lebanese delegation failed to present a common vision to the IMF. In fact, the commercial banks and the central bank, could not agree with the previous government on the scale of the vast losses, along with who would bear those losses. LIMS noted that any deal with the IMF is conditioned by a comprehensive plan that addresses (1) the restructuring of the public sector and sovereign debt, by cutting public expenditures, increasing revenues, and negotiating a haircut with Eurobond holders, (2) restructuring the banking sector, (3) monetary stability, and (4) structural reforms in mismanaged infrastructure sectors, particularly electricity.
LIMS pointed out the trickiest issues to resolve in any negotiation with the IMF: (1) cut down government expenditure in a pre-election year; (2) find a consensus on the restructuring of the banking sector, with all the involved parties refusing to bear the brunt of the financial losses; (3) ensure monetary stability without opting for a currency board, and (4) politicians insisting on implementing an impossible plan for the electricity sector. To illustrate, officials would have new power plants built, while all existing power plants are shut down, because the national electricity company cannot afford to buy fuel. The fate of the new power plants would be the same as the current ones, built but not operating, for lack of fuel.
LIMS Media Interviews:
  • Lebanon’s Negotiations With The IMF, October 20, 2021: Al Sharek, TV Interview AR
  • World Bank Interested In Financing A Conditional Import Of Egyptian Natural Gas, October 20, 2021: Annahar, Article AR
  • Government Watches As The Collapse Continues, October 26, 2021: Janoubia, Article AR
  • What If Lebanon Fails To Reach An Agreement With The IMF?, October 29, 2021: Istiklal, Article AR
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