July 2021

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Here's How We Made a Lasting Impact in July 2021
 LIMS’ Cash Cards Adopted by the Parliament 
At the beginning of July, the Lebanese parliament approved a law to give prepaid cash cards to 500,000 families with a total budget of $556 million for one year. LIMS agreed that cash cards are a lesser evil, compared to the subsidy program that is currently costing $7 billion a year. However, LIMS posed three conditions for the program to be successful: (1) funding must not come from the remaining central bank foreign exchange reserves, (2) funding must not come from further monetary expansion, and (3) the program should only be launched after lifting subsidies.
As it happens, the IMF Board of Governors approved the allocation of $650 billion worth of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) of which Lebanon would receive about $860 million. LIMS suggested the partial use of Lebanon’s share to cover the cash card program. The possible oversight of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would ensure better transparency in the way cash cards are distributed, thus preventing their conversion to electoral bribes. Alternatively, the IMF funds risk being spent in a perfectly transparent way, on failed policies that actually hurt the population, such as subsidies.
LIMS Media Interviews:
  • Cash Cards Relying On A $900 Million Loan From The IMF, July 2, 2021: VDL, Radio Interview AR
  • Who Benefits From Cash Cards And How Will They Be Distributed And Funded, July 5, 2021: NNA, Article AR
  • Cash Cards Need Funding To Avoid Causing Inflation, July 22, 2021: VDL, Radio Interview AR
Subsidies Lead to Major Fuel Crisis
On July 30, Lebanon’s central bank, Banque du Liban (BdL) issued a statement declaring $828 million of foreign exchange reserves were spent in July alone on subsidies. This amount was supposed to cover Lebanon’s need for fuel for 3 months, and yet according to BdL’s official statement, “we still witnessed severe shortages of diesel and gasoline in July that threatened the hospitalization and food securities of the people and led to the emergence of steep black markets for these commodities”. 
LIMS has been pointing out for more than a year that the subsidy program will result in nationwide shortages because fuel and medicine are sold in Lebanon at 30% of their actual cost. This discounted price provides a strong incentive to smuggling and black-market operations. Subsidized medicine disappeared from pharmacies, and patients are begging their relatives abroad to send the needed drugs. To make matters worse, the scarcity of gasoline has left residents queuing in front of gas stations for long hours every day. The diesel shortage led to electricity outages that forced all kinds of businesses to close. Without gasoline, people cannot get to work and without electricity, businesses cannot function. Subsidies are actually destroying what the economic crisis has left.
The cost of subsidies is estimated at $7 billion for 2020 and is expected to grow to $9 billion in 2021. Therefore, Lebanon is actually paying billions to keep its population from getting fuel and medicine. BdL, who finances the program, is in fact insolvent and thus using people’s dollar deposits at commercial banks for this end. Since banks’ assets are captured by BdL and being spent on subsidies, banks can only allow their clients to operate in Lebanese pound (LBP) withdrawals from their USD denominated accounts. Those LBPs are freshly printed by the central bank and translate into currency depreciation. Therefore, subsidies are not only causing shortages of fuel and medicine but are also destroying the purchasing power of the LBP and fueling hyperinflation in the prices of non-subsidized goods. LIMS urged the immediate lifting of all subsidies, so that fuel and medicine become available in the market and the economy can function again.
LIMS Media Interviews:
  • Currency Board Or The 20,000 LBP  To The Dollar Exchange Rate Will Be Dearly Missed, July 14, 2021: Lebanese Forces, Article AR
  • How Long Will The Fuel Crisis Last? July 22, 2021: Annahar TV, TV Interview AR
  • Generator Fuel Shortage In Lebanon Risks Patients’ Lives, July 23, 2021: Al Jazeera English, TV Interview EN
  • The Truth Behind The Central Bank Statement, July 30, 2021: Al Jadeed, TV Interview AR 
The Lebanese Pound’s Volatility Soars Amid Political Instability 
On July 15, Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri resigned after failing to form a new government. After his resignation, the exchange rate jumped from around 17,000 LBP to the dollar, to 22,000 LBP to the dollar on July 18. Mr. Najib Mikati was appointed as the new prime minister on July 26 and tasked to form a new government. On the same day, the exchange rate went down to 16,600 LBP to the dollar. During the same period, Central Bank Circular 158, released in early June took effect. The circular allows dollar depositors to withdraw $400 in cash, in addition to the equivalent of $400 in Lebanese pounds (LBPs) at the rate of 12,000 LBP to the dollar
LIMS explained that such daily fluctuations are short-lived, while the trend of a continuously devaluating LBP remains, given the absence of reforms. All circulars, statements, and policies will not succeed in stabilizing the currency, as long as Lebanon is printing massive loads of LBPs to monetize public debt, while simultaneously depleting the foreign exchange reserves on subsidies at an alarming rate. The printed banknotes that are not covered by economic growth or FX reserves will inevitably translate into a loss of purchasing power that affects all Lebanese. 
LIMS suggested immediately lifting subsidies to stop the hemorrhaging of the remaining reserves and establishing a currency board to restore some of the lost value and purchasing power to the LBP. A currency board would strip the government from the ability to print money in a discretionary way. LIMS also argued against the potential of an international bailout to help Lebanon, as politicians would simply use the funds as bribes for the upcoming elections. Instead, Lebanon must undertake the needed reforms first, in cooperation with the IMF, the World Bank, and the international community, to stabilize the economy and restore confidence. International support would follow the reforms and not proceed them. 
LIMS Media Interviews:
  • Black Market Dollar: Circulars And Platforms Did Not Work, July 2, 2021: Sawt Beirut International, Radio Interview AR
  • Why Did The Exchange Rate Hit 19,500 LBP To The Dollar, July 9, 2021: MTV, TV Interview AR
  • New Governmental Impact On The Dollar Rate As The Collapse Continues, July 9, 2021: Janoubia, Article AR
  • Mardini Explains What’s Coming For The Exchange Rate After PM-Designate Stepped Down, July 15, 2021 Lebeconomy Files, Article AR
  • International Community Says It’s Disappointed With The Political Development In Lebanon, July 16, 2021: Al Jazeera English, TV Interview EN
  • Did Lebanon Step Into The Unknown With The Exchange Rate? July 16, 2021: Al Jadeed, TV Interview AR
  • The Economic Situation In Lebanon And The Continuous Rise Of The Dollar Price, July 17, 2021: NBN, TV Interview AR
  • The Lebanese Pound Will Continue To Plummet For At Least Another Year, July 23, 2021: VDL News, Radio Interview AR
  • Dollar Price Is A Daily Concern For The Lebanese, July 23, 2021: Al Joumhouriya, TV Interview AR
  • Sharp Fluctuations And Continued Depreciation, July 29, 2021: Lebeconomy Files, Article AR
  • Dollar Price On PM Designation Day, July 29, 2021: Addiyar, Article AR
  • New Procedure Within Some Banks, July 31, 2021: Lebanon 24, Article AR
Lebanon’s Crises: Myths and Realities
A plethora of crises hit Lebanon simultaneously. One of them was a monetary crisis in terms of a currency collapse. Another was a public debt crisis as the government defaulted on its Eurobonds payment. To add to these, an economic crisis saw a rise in unemployment, and a banking crisis that had depositors unable to access their savings, after the banks loaned them to the public sector. 
LIMS explained that Lebanon’s woes are internally inflicted and talks of an embargo that is causing the crises is just a denial and an escape from responsibility. Lebanon is free to trade with virtually any country in the world and people remain free to transfer fresh dollars in and out of Lebanon. Existing banking restrictions on “old dollar deposits” are due to an internal banking crisis, not to external sanctions. Furthermore, Lebanon has been receiving considerable worldwide sympathy, notably following the Beirut blast in August 2020. Despite losing confidence in the Lebanese ruling class and therefore withdrawing direct support to the Lebanese government, the international community has been trying to help the Lebanese population directly and pledging massive support to the government in exchange for reforms. LIMS insisted there is no blockade, but admitted that the Caesar Act–that targets the Syrian government and whoever deals with it—has indirectly impacted business, given the economic and historical ties Lebanon has with Syria. 
Electricity on the other hand, is a serious problem. Lebanon is suffering severe electricity rationing due to the national company Électricité du Liban’s (EdL), yearly losses. Those losses translate into a lack of funds to import fuel. LIMS pointed out that the electricity sector has racked up nearly half the public debt, amounting to $45 billion because of the losses. Solutions exist and reducing costs, improving income, as well as allowing competition into the sector remain the most crucial matters. For instance, the Ministry of Energy and Water can save tens of millions of dollars by sending away the rented power ships and using the saved sums to import fuel and restart the now idle Zahrani power plant. Not only would this arrangement provide an additional 3 hours of electricity coverage, the cost of production would also be lowered from an average of 14.41 to 13.93 cents per kWh. Furthermore, LIMS insisted on the importance of unbundling EdL into 3 separate companies tasked with the generation, transmission, and distribution of electrical energy. Dismantling monopolies and allowing more competition into the sector would guarantee a better service at zero cost for the government.
LIMS Media Interviews:
  • Does The Caesar Act Impose An Embargo On Lebanon? July 17, 2021: Addiyar, Article AR
  • Electricity Crisis From Bad To Worse, July 22, 2021: Annahar, Article AR
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