December 2020

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Here's How We Made a Lasting Impact in December 2020
Lebanese Parliament Members Meet Prof. Hanke to Discuss Currency Board Solution
LIMS organized an online workshop gathering 13 members of parliament (MPs) and decision makers with Professor Steve Hanke, who is the world’s foremost authority on hyperinflation and a leading expert on currency boards. Professor Hanke has been measuring the annual inflation rate of Lebanon on a daily basis. He explained that after exceeding 50% per month, for 30 consecutive days in September 2020, Lebanon officially became the first MENA country and the 62nd country worldwide to suffer from hyperinflation. By his measure, inflation in Lebanon sits at 274% per year, much higher than the official inflation rate measured at only 136.8%. 
Professor Hanke suggested establishing a currency board in Lebanon to resolve the currency crisis by covering 100% of the central bank’s Lebanese pounds (LBP) liabilities with a foreign reserve currency. This reform would separate the currency from politics, stabilize the LBP exchange rate, and stop hyperinflation in as little as 30 days. Launching a currency board would unfreeze LBP deposits, put a hard budget constraint on the government, and unify the official exchange rate with the black-market rate in a credible way. Professor Hanke compared the country's current situation to the crisis of Bulgaria in the early 1990s, which defaulted on its debts several times between 1991 and 1997. After setting up a currency board, inflation in Bulgaria decreased to 1.6% and interest rates to 2.43%. The budget deficit turned into a surplus, and foreign exchange reserves rose from $864 million to $3.1 billion in just one year.
Extensive Media Interest in the Currency Board Reform 
Attracting attention, the workshop was covered by 14 media outlets and followed by a series of TV, radio, and newspaper interviews where Professor Hanke and Dr. Mardini explained the critical components of a currency board. While local exit strategies from the crisis have focused on the liquidation of the economy and the distribution of the losses, the currency board solution would stabilize the Lebanese pound and help relaunch the economy by attracting capital inflows. Inflows would also improve state returns and reduce the banking crises. Establishing a currency board requires the parliament to amend the code of Money and Credit, to put an end to the discretionary monetary policy of the central bank. On another hand, LIMS also insisted on the danger of squandering both foreign currency and gold reserves. Wasting reserves will lead, in the medium run, to stronger devaluation of the currency. Fortunately, Law 42/1986 prohibits the sale of the gold reserves. 
  • Gold Reserves… And The Deepening Crisis, December 8, 2020: Lebanon24, Article AR
  • Funding Subsidies By Printing Is Killing The Lira, December 9, 2020: Nidaa Al Watan, Article AR
  • Currency Board Would Separate The Economy From Politics, December 19, 2020: VDL, Radio Interview AR
  • Hanke Proposes Currency Board, Will Parliament Respond ,December 19, 2020: Annahar, Article AR
  • Lebanon’s Inflation Rate Registers Rare Dip But Still Tops 133% In November, December 23, 2020: Arabian Business, Article EN
  • Johns Hopkins Figure: This Is The Solution To Lebanon’s Economic Crisis, December 24, 2020: Annahar TV, TV Interview AR
  • Lebanon Second Only To Venezuela In Inflation, December 24, 2020: Janoubia, Article AR
  • Lebanon’s Inflation Rate Reached 270% Per Annum, And The Main Crisis Is Monetary, December 28, 2020: LBCI, TV Interview AR
  • Dr. Patrick Mardini Discusses The Currency Board, December 28, 2020: LBCI, TV Interview AR
  • Hanke’s Inflation Dashboard: Venezuela Still Leads, December 28, 2020: Yahoo News, Article EN
  • Amending The Monetary Law To Separate The Currency From Politics, December 29, 2020: VDL News, Radio Interview AR
  • Currency Board For Lebanon, Explained, December 30, 2020: The 961, Article EN
Who Bares The Cost Of The Crisis?
The World Bank expected the crisis to cost Lebanon a 19.2% contraction in GDP for 2020, following the 6.7% decline of 2019, and described the situation as a “deliberate depression”. LIMS agreed with the World Bank’s description and explained that the government and parliament failed to reach a consensus on how to tackle the crisis at hand. Actually, the government suggested a plan where the public sector (the government and the central bank) would default on its debt to banks. After the public sector default, banks would become insolvent, so the government decided to wipe out their capital ($21 billion) and impose a haircut on depositors ($62 billion) to cover those losses. The parliament refused this arrangement doubting the assumptions and data provided by the government. After the Beirut explosion, the government ended up resigning and Lebanon has been watching the meltdown with outrageous inaction and the absence of any serious reforms. 
LIMS explained that Central bank losses are mainly due to issuing dollar denominated deposits to banks and lending them in Lebanese pounds to the government. The dollar reserves amassed by the central bank were lost trying to maintain the peg. Therefore, the devaluation of the Lebanese pound, combined with the government default on Eurobonds, led to the loss of assets. 

When the central bank refused to acknowledge those losses, the government contracted Alvarez and Marsal to conduct a forensic audit of the central bank. However, the agreement was canceled when the firm hit the hurdle of banking secrecy laws. The parliament had to amend the law to allow the forensic audit to take place and accurately determine the size and cause of the losses. LIMS considered the forensic audit a step in the right direction but was puzzled with the government’s attitude.  On the one hand, the government blames the central bank for losing foreign exchange reserves to maintain the peg, and on the other, the same government asks the central bank to lose more foreign exchange reserves on the subsidy program.
LIMS Media Interviews:
  • World Bank Expects Lebanon To Suffer From Economic Stagnation Amid Lack Of Solutions, December 1, 2020: Al Yawm, TV Interview AR
  • Forensic Audit Falls Short, Prolonging The Lebanese Economic Crisis, December 2, 2020: Anadol Agency, Article AR
  • Banking Secrecy Has Been Lifted, How Will This Be Implemented, December 22, 2020: Annahar, Article AR
  • Fate Of The Exchange Rate If Central Bank Continues Losing Foreign Exchange Reserves, December 4, 2020: OTV, TV Interview AR
  • Economic Crisis And COVID-19 Pandemic Dissolving Lebanon’s Middle Class, December 14, 2020: Anadol Agency, Article AR
  • Economy And COVID-19 Destroying Lebanon’s Middle Class, December 16, 2020: Ishrakat, Article AR
Subsidies Ruining Economy, Must Be Lifted Immediately
Facing extremely harsh hyperinflation, the Lebanese government opted for a subsidy program encompassing medicine, fuel, and some 300 other products deemed as “necessities” to support impoverished citizens. LIMS emphasized that subsidies are being funded by dollar denominated bank deposits, while depositors are restricted from accessing their money. As a matter of fact, the program costs 40,000 billion LBP per year, double the amount approved by parliament for government spending in 2020. Tripling the public expenses ought to have reinvigorated the economy, but shortages have become the norm instead. In fact, LIMS stressed that subsidies have failed to reach the intended target and the money is ending up in the hands of smugglers. The program should be repealed and replaced with a more efficient mechanism targeting people rather than goods. 
At the same time, LIMS criticized the “ration stamps” suggestion, as it is prone to corruption and would increase clientelism. Political parties would give the ration stamps to their loyal supporters, at the expense of those who need them the most. Furthermore, ration stamps restrict the consumption to specific items, failing to consider the differing needs of each individual. An even better alternative would be an unrestricted cash transfer program (quasi-universal basic income), effectively giving people the option of using the aid to what fits their personal needs. Supporting citizens, rather than subsidizing medicine, fuel, and goods ought to disincentivize the smuggling, consequently cutting the losses that have been amassing for the past year.  More importantly, LIMS pointed out that subsidies are just patchwork to a crisis caused by the inflation. Tackling the root cause of inflation, by addressing the currency devaluation, is essential and therefore, a currency board would provide the fundamental solution to subsidies. 
LIMS Media Interviews:
  • Solution Must Start By Addressing The Deterioration Of The Lira Exchange Rate, December 9, 2020: Al Marada, Article AR
  • Subsidy Policy Was Patchwork That Benefited Major Traders And Smugglers, December 9, 2020: AlKalima Online, Article AR
  • Varying Opinions On Subsidy Program Can’t Hide The Fact That It’s Funded By Dollar Deposits, December 10, 2020: El Ektisad, Article AR
  • Rationalizing Subsidies Could Cut Losses And Reduce Smuggling, December 10, 2020: OTV, TV Interview AR
  • What Are The Gaps Of The Subsidy Mechanism And Who Are The Real Beneficiaries, December 10, 2020: VDL, Radio Interview AR
  • Dialogue Forum To Discuss Crisis, Its Ramifications, And Practical Solution For Recovery, December 20, 2020: sada4press, Article AR
Winner of Advancing Liberty Award, Dr. Jean Ellieh Acknowledged In Media
After receiving the Advancing Liberty Award offered by LIMS, Dr. Jean Ellieh, director general of the Tenders Department (TD), received media attention for standing up against policymakers’ recent attempts to violate laws. In fact, Algerian fuel company Sonatrach was unwilling to renew its contract with the state-owned electricity company Electricité du Liban (EDL), and had already notified the Ministry of Economy and Water on this matter in June. Yet the ministry waited until December to suggest a new tender for an alternative procurement of fuel to EDL. Since the tendering process is cumbersome, the ministry leaked details that Lebanon is facing a bitter choice of either accepting a total blackout—as EDL had not purchased fuel—or tolerating a spot cargo contract, until a new tender is complete. Regarding this case, the TD declined to certify the spot cargo deal for its illegality, despite the media pressure exercised by the ministry, accusing the TD of driving the country into an intentional blackout. Given the TD’s refusal to compromise, the ministry “surprisingly” discovered unused fuel reserves, thus preventing nationwide power cuts, despite previous claims. 
LIMS Media Interviews
  • Ministry Of Energy And Water Offering A Choice Between Blackouts And Spot Cargo, December 11, 2020: Janoubia, Article AR
  • Lebanese Institute For Market Studies Presents Advancing Liberty Award, December 12, 2020: Enooma, Article AR
  • Ellieh: Nothing Can Push Me To Break The Law, December 14, 2020: Annahar, Article AR
  • LIMS Presents Jean Ellieh With The Advancing Liberty Award At Its Annual Gala, December 16, 2020: Ad-Dawra, Al Ektisadiya, Article AR
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