August 2020

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Here’s How We Made a Lasting Impact in August 2020
Currency Board More Urgent Than Ever 
In the aftermath of the August 4th Port of Beirut blast, the government resigned and a new prime minister, Mustapha Adib, is set to take office and form a new cabinet. Securing an agreement with the IMF to regain the international community’s trust and support is the top priority of the new government.  This mission will be challenging as Lebanese officials are still unable to agree on the size of the losses, despite 18 meetings with the IMF so far. Concurrently, Moody’s downgraded Lebanon’s rating from Ca to C. LIMS explained that the wasted time is costing Lebanon a lot. Meanwhile, the central bank continues to finance government deficit through inflation, creating more pressure on the Lebanese pound at a time where capital inflows are drying out.
Working in tandem with the world’s foremost authority on hyperinflation and leading expert in currency stabilization, Professor Steve Hanke from the Johns Hopkins University, LIMS reiterated its proposal for a currency board to stop the collapse of the Lebanese pound. A comparison was drawn between Lebanon’s current predicament and Bulgaria’s in the mid-90s. The latter had lost half of its foreign currency reserves, tax revenues were down by 65%, the budget deficit reached 52%, and printing money pushed hyperinflation to 2,000%. Adoption of a currency board paved the way to an IMF agreement and led to stabilizing the exchange rate. In fact, LIMS designed a Blueprint to Establish Leading Infrastructure Economy and Finance in Lebanon (BELIEF in Lebanon) and the currency board proposition is a key component of the reform.

LIMS Media Interviews:
  • Moody's Latest Downgrade To Prevent Lebanon's Access To International Markets, August 3, 2020: Xinhuanet, Article EN
  •  A Pathway To An Agreement With The IMF, August 4, 2020: Al Joumhouriya, Article AR
  • Can The New Government Secure The Trust Of Donors And The IMF?, August 31, 2020: Arabi 21, Article AR
  • Trust In The Banking Sector Deteriorated With The Devaluation Of The Lebanese Pound , August 28, 2020: VDL, Radio Interview AR
Subsidy Program Depleting Central Bank’s Reserves
Facing the worst economic recession in Lebanon’s modern history, the government asked the central bank to subsidize fuel, medicine, wheat, and 300 other items. LIMS argued that this policy will drain foreign exchange reserves within 3 months and brutal consequences lie ahead unless a miracle happens. The organization explained that the current smuggling of products to Syria is due to subsidies, causing shortages at home, and stimulates the black market.  Unfortunately, the vulnerable population does not reap the benefits of the subsidy program. Instead, the wealthiest purchase these items in bulk and then resell abroad for a marked up price, earning a hefty profit. In the end, the policy is leaving Lebanon’s shelves empty and the black market busier than ever. 
As a matter of fact, the current government blamed previous cabinets for subsidizing the Lebanese pound (LBP) pegged at an overvalued rate of 1,507 LBP to the dollar. Yet the purpose of the current policy seems to hold onto an unofficial market rate at around 7,000 LBP to the dollar, as importers of the subsidized items are getting their dollars from the central bank. Such a plan resulted in stabilizing the exchange rate, at the cost of depleting the central bank’s reserves at a rate of nearly $600 million a month. Once the reserves are gone, importers will have to get their dollars from the black market and the Lebanese pound’s rate will collapse. 
LIMS Media Interviews:
  • Exchange Rate Stabilizes, But For How Long, August 12, 2020: MTV, TV Interview AR
  • Depleting The Central Bank Reserves, 2 Available Alternatives, August 12, 2020: OTV, TV Interview AR
  • Subsidies, A Deprived Population And Monopolists Reaping Benefits, August 17, 2020: El Elkisad, Article AR
  • Exchange Rate Stabilizes At 7,000 LBP To The Dollar, August 20, 2020: VDL, Radio Interview AR
  • Have People’s Deposits Vanished, August 22, 2020: Al Jazeera, Article AR
  • Ending Subsidies Too Late Is An Effective 100% Haircut, August 22, 2020: Nidaa Al Watan, Article AR
  • What It Means To End Subsidies, August 24, 2020: Annahar TV, TV Interview AR
  • Increase In Prices And Decrease In Purchasing Power, August 25, 2020: VDL News, Radio Interview AR
  • The Central Bank’s Continued Struggle With Foreign Currency Reserves, August 26, 2020: Anadol, Article AR
Privatization Key to Rebuilding Beirut’s Port Successfully
The massive explosion at the Port of Beirut shook the capital to its core. Following what was described as “the final blow”, Lebanon nearly lost the entirety of its food reserves, which is usually stored at the port, as well as the means to import most products. LIMS showed that privatization is the only way for a rapid rebuilding of the port because the government cannot afford reconstruction costs. Even if public funding was secured, it would still take the Lebanese government decades to rebuild the port due to cronyism and entrenched corruption. The electricity sector, for example, has been struggling for the last 3 decades because of the government’s handling. A privately owned port would be infinitely more efficient and would have prevented the mismanagement that led to the storage of thousands of tons of explosives, in Beirut’s most expensive district. LIMS also advised auctioning all Lebanese ports, not only the Port of Beirut, to private, foreign companies. Such a move would allow competition between Lebanese ports and bring benefits to traders, households, and even the government. 
LIMS Media Interviews:
  • A Plan To Rebuild The Port, August 5, 2020: MTV, TV Interview AR
  • How The Port Can Be Rebuilt Quickly And How To Avoid Repeating The Catastrophe, August 5, 2020: Alsharek el Awsat, TV Interview AR
  • More Than 300 Thousand Families Without Shelter In Beirut, August 5, 2020: Independent Arabia, Article AR
  • Will The Government Make The Right Economic Choices To Rebuild Beirut’s Port, August 6, 2020: Al Yawm, TV Interview AR
  • Tripoli’s Port As An Alternative, August 6, 2020: Al Jazeera, TV Interview EN
  • Beirut Explosion Inflicts Huge Blow To Lebanon’s Economy, August 7, 2020: Xinhuanet, Article EN
  • Reconstruction Needs Years And Billions Of Dollars, How Will Beirut Be Rebuilt, August 7, 2020: Rassif 22, Article AR
  • Could A Renewed Lebanon Arise From The Ashes, August 9, 2020: Atlas Network, Article EN
  • Rebuilding The Port Quickly Must Be Done Through Privatization, August 15, 2020: TeleLiban, TV Interview AR
  • Explosion At The Port Of Beirut, The Fatal Blow, August 17, 2020: MTV, TV Interview AR
  • Crisis, Pandemic, And Explosion…Can Lebanon’s Economy Be Revived, August 23, 2020: Al Istiklal, Article AR
  • What America Can Learn From Lebanon’s Financial Crisis, August 24, 2020: Ivoox, Radio Interview EN
  • It Is Time To Auction The Seaports In Lebanon, August 29, 2020: Annahar, Article AR
Economy Blown to Pieces, As Government Remains Untrustworthy 
Since the dreadful Beirut explosion that took place on August 4th, the economic consequences are nothing short of disastrous. LIMS declared that the government does not have the means to compensate for the losses of the victims and warned against using the blast to justify printing more money. Instead, victims should be allowed to withdraw their dollars deposits from the bank in dollars, rather than giving them no choice but to withdraw in LBP at an unfair rate. Foreign exchange reserves that are being used to finance controversial government projects like the water dams and the powerships, should be redirected to allow victims to withdraw their money.  
On another hand, retailers of glass and aluminum were accused of being greedy and taking advantage of the increased demand from the victims to sell more and even raise their prices. LIMS explained that given the harsh recession, virtually all businesses in Lebanon are experiencing extreme financial hardship. The increased demand on glass and aluminum might help retailers reduce their losses, but they are certainly not making gains. As for the high prices, the real reason resides in hyperinflation and the policy of paying government debt through printing more Lebanese pounds. 
LIMS Media Interviews:
  • The Explosion That Broke The Nation’s Back, August 7, 2020: Nidaa Al Watan, Article AR
  • The Lebanese Pound Expected To Depreciate In Coming Days, August 7, 2020: Arab-Turkiye, Article AR
  • Beirut Explosion Creates Boom In Demand For Glass, Aluminum, August 31,2020: Al Jazeera, Article AR
Crisis Deepens, With No Talks of Reforms 
Despite the crippling economic collapse, the Lebanese government continues to run a large unfunded fiscal deficit. Having defaulted on the payment of sovereign debt earlier this year, Lebanon lost the ability to secure more loans to fund public spending. In a series of interviews, LIMS pointed out that the high public expenditure is the main reason behind the current economic meltdown and maintaining the same old lavish management of the treasury, would only deepen the crisis. International trust can only be restored if Lebanon resorts to serious structural reforms geared towards cutting public expenditures. The number of public sector employees must be decreased starting with the unproductive ones, who owe their place to cronyism. Additionally, funding must stop for the expensive water dam projects that were proven inefficient, along with the expensive, now idle, powerships. Unfortunately, the government’s answer to this crisis has been to print more cash to cover expenses. As a result, prices have soared and the country’s troubles have continued to grow.
LIMS Media Interviews:    
  • Giving Up On A Crisis-Hit Lebanon And Traveling To The US, August 2, 2020: NRK, Article NOR
  • Continued Lira Depreciation Against The Dollar, August 3, 2020: Asas Media, Article AR
  • The Financial Situation After Lebanon Defaulted On Paying Its Debts, August 3, 2020: VDL, Radio Interview AR
  • Government Spending Remains The Root Cause Of The Crisis, August 3, 2020: Al Jazeera English, TV Interview EN
  • The State’s Options: Powerships And Dams, Or Employees’ Salaries, August 7, 2020: Eliktisad, Article AR
From Switzerland of the East to Utter Despair 
Many people still reminisce about the golden age in Lebanon, when it was labeled the “Switzerland of the East” for its prosperity and booming economy. Kristelle Mardini, the director of LIMS, clarified that Lebanon’s success was due to its free market economy that attracted investors up until the late 60s. Then, after the gruesome civil war, that economic model changed and the government began interfering in all sectors of the economy, like the electricity, airlines, and telecom, among many others. Subsequently, monopolies were created that enabled corruption and the inefficient management of vital industries. This led to the borrowing policy and thus the national debt has seen an exponential growth ever since. 
Consequently, the government defaulted on its debt earlier this year and resorted to printing the local currency to keep funding its expenditures, which has led to hyperinflation. Lebanon can regain its old prosperous status with a return to a free market economy and competition. Such a policy would free the government of its financial load and would provide people with better and cheaper services. Auctioning the seaports in Lebanon to private companies could be the first step to free the economy once more. They’d be tasked with rebuilding, operating them more efficiently, and improving their service quality.
LIMS Media Interviews:
  • Will Lebanon Ever Be The Switzerland Of The East Again, August 29, 2020: Arabi 21, Article AR
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